Unrealistic optimism
DESCRIPTION
A judgmental bias in an individual’s estimation of the likelihood of future events or outcomes where the likelihood of positive events occurring is over estimated and the likelihood of negative events occurring is underestimated.
A judgmental bias in an individual’s estimation of the likelihood of future events or outcomes where the likelihood of positive events occurring is over estimated and the likelihood of negative events occurring is underestimated.
KEY INSIGHTS
Based on pioneering research by Lund (1925) and Cantril (1928) and subsequent research by Weinstein (1980), unrealistic optimism is considered to be a pervasive phenomenon, where individuals tend to believe that desirable events or outcomes are more likely to happen to them than others and undesirable events or outcomes are less likely to happen to them than others. Such a bias leads individuals to have a distorted, overly optimistic view of the future that, while serving to enhance an individual’s sense of well-being, may nevertheless be potentially detrimental to others to the extent others perceive such assessments as providing them with unbiased, albeit subjective, guidance on the likelihood of occurrence of future events.
Based on pioneering research by Lund (1925) and Cantril (1928) and subsequent research by Weinstein (1980), unrealistic optimism is considered to be a pervasive phenomenon, where individuals tend to believe that desirable events or outcomes are more likely to happen to them than others and undesirable events or outcomes are less likely to happen to them than others. Such a bias leads individuals to have a distorted, overly optimistic view of the future that, while serving to enhance an individual’s sense of well-being, may nevertheless be potentially detrimental to others to the extent others perceive such assessments as providing them with unbiased, albeit subjective, guidance on the likelihood of occurrence of future events.
KEYWORDS Bias, optimism
IMPLICATIONS
As experts are prone to the judgmental bias of unrealistic optimism, marketing strategists should be concerned about the possibility of an expert providing overly optimistic forecasts of future events. Obtaining a mix of views by outsiders—i.e. individuals not having close, personal stakes attached to the occurrence of particular future events or outcomes—may help to reduce unrealistic optimism. Marketers should also recognize that consumers may have this judgmental bias which may, in turn, influence consumers’ beliefs, attitudes, or consumption behaviors associated with beneficial personal activities (e.g. need for healthy eating) and harmful personal activities (e.g. smoking). Understanding and overcoming such a judgmental bias among consumers enables the phenomenon to be recognized as an explicit challenge for marketers to address through effective marketing communications.
As experts are prone to the judgmental bias of unrealistic optimism, marketing strategists should be concerned about the possibility of an expert providing overly optimistic forecasts of future events. Obtaining a mix of views by outsiders—i.e. individuals not having close, personal stakes attached to the occurrence of particular future events or outcomes—may help to reduce unrealistic optimism. Marketers should also recognize that consumers may have this judgmental bias which may, in turn, influence consumers’ beliefs, attitudes, or consumption behaviors associated with beneficial personal activities (e.g. need for healthy eating) and harmful personal activities (e.g. smoking). Understanding and overcoming such a judgmental bias among consumers enables the phenomenon to be recognized as an explicit challenge for marketers to address through effective marketing communications.
APPLICATION AREAS AND FURTHER READINGS
International Marketing
Heine, S. J., and Lehman, D. R. (1995). ‘Cultural Variation in Unrealistic Optimism: Does the West Feel More Invulnerable than the East?’ Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(4), 595–607.
Heine, S. J., and Lehman, D. R. (1995). ‘Cultural Variation in Unrealistic Optimism: Does the West Feel More Invulnerable than the East?’ Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 68(4), 595–607.
Marketing Communications
Weinstein, Neil D. (1983). ‘Reducing Unrealistic Optimism about Illness Susceptibility,’ Health Psychology, 2, 11–20.
Weinstein, Neil D. (1983). ‘Reducing Unrealistic Optimism about Illness Susceptibility,’ Health Psychology, 2, 11–20.
Davidson, K., and Prkachin, K. (1997). ‘Optimism and Unrealistic Optimism Have an Interacting Impact on Health-Promoting Behavior and Knowledge Changes,’ Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 23(6), 617–625.
Henriksen, L., and Flora, J. A. (1999). ‘Third-Person Perception and Children: Perceived Impact of Pro- and Anti-Smoking Ads,’ Communication Research, 26(6), 643–665.
Marketing Strategy
Tichy, G. (2004). ‘The Over-Optimism among Experts in Assessment and Foresight,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(4), 341–63.
Tichy, G. (2004). ‘The Over-Optimism among Experts in Assessment and Foresight,’ Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 71(4), 341–63.
Consumer Behavior
Taylor, S. E., and Brown, J. D. (1988). ‘Illusion andWell Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health,’ Psychological Bulletin, 103, 193–210.
Taylor, S. E., and Brown, J. D. (1988). ‘Illusion andWell Being: A Social Psychological Perspective on Mental Health,’ Psychological Bulletin, 103, 193–210.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Lund, F. H. (1925). ‘The Psychology of Belief: A Study of its Emotional and Volitional Determinants,’ Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 20, 63–81.
Lund, F. H. (1925). ‘The Psychology of Belief: A Study of its Emotional and Volitional Determinants,’ Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 20, 63–81.
Cantril, H. (1928). ‘The Prediction of Social Events,’ Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33, 364–389.
Weinstein, Neil D. (1980). ‘Unrealistic Optimism about Future Life Events,’ Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39(5), November, 806–820.
McKenna, F. P. (1993). ‘It Won’t Happen to Me: Unrealistic Optimism or Illusion of Control?’ British Journal of Psychology, 84(1), 39–50.
unrelated diversification see product-market investment strategies
unsought product see product classifications, consumer
unsought product see product classifications, consumer