Customer Growth Rate - Marketing and Management Models

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Customer Growth Rate


Helen Strong

Customer Growth Rate: Purpose

It is important to monitor whether, and how quickly, your target is growing. The allocation of resources depends on whether you are experiencing a stable situation, or changes in market share. In effect, this metric is an indicator of the success or otherwise of your marketing strategies. When launching a product, you need to know when you have reached critical mass. For established products, you need to be aware of the trend of customer growth, or if there is any sudden movement that would signal a problem in the marketplace.

The growth rate of the customer pool is an important metric for planning, for marketing and other business resources. This model reminds the marketer to estimate the total consuming market size, and points to brand switching models to estimate the potential and limits of the organization’s share of that market.


Customer Growth Rate: Structure and Description

In this model (Figure 15.1), we are considering the total number of consuming units (CUs) available to the marketer. By CU, we could be referring to mines, public service departments, individual manufacturers or retailers, departments within organizations, people, households, schools, or whatever makes sense within the market.

Because the amount and timing of revenue from customers differ from industry to industry, we have not attempted to provide a model to estimate the value of customers to the business.

Right at the beginning, you need to be aware that market projections are difficult, and that all growth estimates tend to be optimistic with respect to amount and timing. It is recommended that you err on the side

Customer growth rate

Figure 15.1 Customer growth rate


of caution and use at least two estimates—the one that you arrive at, and then one that doubles the time span and halves your best estimate.

Another useful check is to do a calculation in which you look at a rough limit estimate of the total number of CUs that are likely to be available, and then when you arrive at your estimates from the processes below, do a reality check. Is such a number possible?

The total number of CUs will depend on the product functionality (usefulness in companies’ or peoples’ lives), which in turn determines the degree of interest in the product. The frequency of purchase (for example, one-off or regular use) will also influence the number of units that are in the market at any one time. The figure for CUs is relatively easy to establish with an old product, but is less simple when an entirely new product is being introduced to the market.

Greenberg (2009) recommends keeping the process simple for calculation of organizational customer growth. Using his approach, he posits there are two parts to the formula. The first looks at estimates of the number of customers, which originate from marketing activity, and the second considers the retention rate of existing customers. (As an implication, marketers need to have a retention program in place.)

The following Greenberg’s formulas are based on business-to-business (B2B) operations, but they can be adapted for consumer goods. Greenberg indicates that, for client acquisition you need to consider each lead source and by using the conversion or closing rate you can estimate the number of new clients that will come on board. (In the following equations, # means number and * means multiply.)


For each lead source,
(# of leads or visits or registrations × conversion or closing rate) = new clients per month.
The second part of Greenberg’s formulas is based on existing clients.
(# of existing customers × activity or retention rate) = retained clients per month.
If we had been considering revenue, we would apply Greenberg’s final step, which considers the revenue generated via each type of customer:
([# new customers × average sales] + [# retained customers × average sales]).


In our adaptation to a consumer goods situation, one could develop estimates such as:


New CUs from traditional and electronic (e-mail) advertising and promotions:
(# people made aware × associated purchase rate)
Add this to CUs sourced from web-based applications and social media:
(# people visiting site × percentage completing purchase process)
(Note that this is a huge simplification of web metrics!)
Plus:
(# word-of-mouth recommended purchasers)
Then count in existing customers:
(# totally loyal customers + percentage share of purchases by irregular customers).


Obviously, conversion rates from contact at source to customers would be used to guide the allocation of adspend and promotional activity.


Customer Growth Rate: Strategic Considerations

Customer growth rate estimates are essential when applying for venture capital, deciding whether one should launch a product, and in an established situation, evaluating performance and estimating resource requirements.

Growth rate estimates provide a useful focus on completing the metrics for promotional and other campaigns. If you are tracking the number of leads and conversions that emerge from the different programs, you will be constantly aware of changes in effectiveness, and reflect on what is changing to influence the response and conversion rates.

Another important consideration is that the process emphasizes the need for a retention program. Time and again, it has been shown that it is cheaper to retain an existing customer than it is to gain a new one.


Growth Rate Model: Implementation

Total Consumer Units

In this model, we are calculating the number of units that consume the product, not the amount of turnover or revenue that will result from those customers. Pricing is only important here insofar as it influences customer attraction to the product market, or in causing a switch to a particular brand or substitute product.

In the first place, we are considering the number of consumers in a product market: This estimate should be regularly calculated as a matter of course when reviewing strategic options and plans. Anything could affect the size of the market from changes in consumer needs, substitute products to environmental trends. We are also not referring to the size of the function market. For example, how many people now use long player records and 45 singles, the music delivery technology of the mid-twentieth century? Almost everyone still listens to music, but via CDs (another fading technology), iPods, tablets, and other electronic devices.

Arriving at an estimate of the total customer market requires secondary and perhaps primary market research to establish just how many people or companies actually use the type of product you are concerned with.

In South Africa depending on the product class, one could turn to the All Media and Product Survey, (AMPS), Nielsen Audits, the Bureau of Market Research (BMR), Stats SA, associations, and professional institutes to find the relevant statistics. For B2B marketing, annual reports and the media are also good sources of information.


The type of industry will determine the rate of change of the basic information that is needed. Each time the estimate is reviewed, you need to make a note of the assumptions that are being applied regarding the product market and its environment.

To calculate and understand the factors influencing overall growth, the types of questions that need to be answered include:

    What has happened to the market growth (in CUs) over the past year, 5 years, perhaps even 10 years?
    Then draw a trend line to establish the general direction of the change. Apply the trend line to the next two years to estimate possible growth or decline.

    What happened to cause the changes? Consider:
    Life cycle models
    Entry of a competitive product that either stimulated or depressed growth in CUs.

    How much of market growth is due to natural population or segment growth?
    What factors influence these market changes? (industry drivers)

    What trends are noticeable in these drivers?
    In particular, what technology has occurred or is in the pipeline to influence consumption?

    Consider Porter’s five forces:
    Changes in the company that will affect operations
    What is happening in the environment? (PESTLE with particular emphasis on what could influence consumption of this product class.)
    How are the needs and attitudes of consumers changing with regard to the function that the product fulfills?
    Has competitor activity expanded the market?
    What innovations and changes have suppliers brought to the market?
    Are there any substitution products on the horizon?

Researchers will not use just one estimate of market change. They will look at probable percentage changes from several perspectives and then arrive at a best estimate from reflection of the various forces changing the market size.

As a benchmark, without any explanatory source one would just look at the sales or consumption trends. Then one would add things like price hikes, levels and types of promotion, and perhaps even disruptive events to analyze what had happened to the number of CUs. The researcher would then analyze the variables to see whether the events had caused the CUs to enter or leave the market. A typical process would consider:

CUs to date
+/– Demographic change (especially income and education)
+/– Technology use switch
+/– Substitution product use
+/– Environment issues
+/– Relative price change
+/– Innovative product applications
+/– Geographic changes (e.g., development of export markets)
+/– Competitive activity (e.g., imports) changing the level of consumption
= New level of CUs.

The market estimates should then be tested by applying the changed view of the market to particular segments. For example, look at a geographic area and test whether the new estimate matches the market researched level of CUs found in such an area or segment.


Organizational Growth

In the first instance, potential unit growth for the organization will be estimated by applying brand share percentages to the current and projected number of CUs in the market.

Following this, a review of the organization’s CU growth should be undertaken giving consideration to marketing factors. The researcher will test the suggested growth figure from the total market growth, by evaluating the projected impact of business and marketing plans.

To apply Greenberg’s (2009) formulas (mentioned above), one needs to take a decision regarding the definition of customer types for a particular industry. Using modern technology to track customer interactions with the company (and its websites), one can reach a useful categorization by customer purchasing history. In turn, this information can guide the content and types of messages that are relevant to the customers when promoting the product.

The buying cycle of your product will influence how you categorize customers. Never customers are easy. But hopefully your system is able to trace whether they have interacted (for example, made an enquiry), so you can insert a have interacted category too.

It is not possible in all markets, but vigilant marketers will track the ongoing purchases of customers to see whether their regular buying pattern (value and frequency) is still in place. Renewal lapses (for subscription-based organizations) or the length of the buying cycle will influence the stage at which you move customers into the prior status.

One possible categorization is given in Table 15.1.

A constant and careful watch needs to be implemented on the net gains or losses that are occurring within the database, or being regularly measured in, perhaps, syndicated studies.

In addition to the above, the researcher needs to consider models such as brand resonanceBR, the brand resonance ladderBRL, and brand switching to ensure that the correct information is available to understand why change is taking place, and to underpin and guide growth marketing activity.


Table 15.1 Customer categorization

Category

Customer unit definition

Never

Never bought a product

Interacted

Enquired; called for quote; sampled but did not buy

First time

Placed first order or purchased

Existing

Places second and subsequent orders

Prior

Not purchased from the company during a defined period

Returned

Previous customer who has purchased following a lapse



Customer Growth: Conclusions

Customer growth is fundamental to the well-being of an organization. Being aware of the issues and factors affecting the size of a market provides a strong platform for effective marketing strategies and should ensure efficient allocation of attention and resources.


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