Adopt and Drop Curve
Helen Strong
Adopt and Drop: Purpose
This tracking activity is meant to act as an early warning system to indicate a fall in consumer purchase of a product, especially when it has recently been launched.
Adopt and Drop: Structure and Description
George Silverman (2000) wrote about an adopt and drop curve when discussing contradictory results obtained from qualitative and quantitative data. In the context of the article, he discussed early adopters who do not necessarily continue using a product after trial.
It struck the author that this is an extremely useful concept that should be adapted by researchers to identify issues with new (and for that matter old) product performance in the market. Essentially, Silverman suggests regular monitoring of the composition of users in the market to check out their status in terms of new user, ongoing user, and prior user. Even though sales may be booming, he points out that if there is acceleration in the rate of drop (discontinuing use), it will probably result in a sales problem.
At an early stage, the researcher is able to identify the issue and establish the reasons for the lapsed users. In the graphic illustration that follows, current users measured in the market are represented by the middle line. The bottom line represents the number of lapsed users, and the top line represents the potential number of users if the lapsed users had not stopped using the product (Figure 2.1).
Figure 2.1 Adopt and drop curve implied by Silverman (2000)
Adopt and Drop: Strategic Implications
An early warning of an impending fall in sales allows the marketing team to take corrective action. This allows redirection of resources or product or marketing mix adjustment to solve the reasons for the dissatisfaction and put a stop to discontinuing product use.
Silverman’s (2000) advice is:
When those groups tell you that the product doesn’t work, or has other fatal flaws, run for the hills. Or, if it is a really good product, do something to fix the mess. If you don’t act quickly, the word-of-mouth is likely to overwhelm the rest of the marketing.
Adopt and Drop: Implementation
There is never any guarantee that the market research conducted prior to the launch of a product will uncover all the attributes deemed important by consumers. It also may not uncover the problems that consumers encounter when using the product on a regular basis.
To track consumer usage and attitudes toward the product, the researcher needs to implement a combination of qualitative and quantitative techniques.
A syndicated survey tracking use dimensions (never; have tried; regular user; prior user) would give a reading on use status. If this is combined with qualitative studies amongst current users, prior users, and the target market, the reasons for product use or discontinuing use would be established and addressed by the marketing team.
Adopt and Drop: Conclusions
Until a product is well established in the market, it is advisable to track adoption and discontinuance of that product so that no nasty surprises hit the marketing team. Even with well-established products, a monitor that traces the reasons for prior use will provide a template for corrective marketing action.
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